Tuesday, June 28, 2005

Global Warming Study and Scientific Ethics

From Outside The Beltway.

This reports that there are some serious questions related to the Mann (et. al) study on global warming. Mostly triggered by a Wall St. Journal article where Mann refuses to be "intimidated" into releasing the algorithm that he used to produce his findings.

My understanding of the Mann findings are that they are related to indirect measurements of temperature, such as tree rings or coral growth, and that the research sounds reasonable. The problem is that they refuse to allow peer review of their methodology especially related to the mathematical model that the used.

I think ethically they have a problem. All science requires that the results and methods be open for review so that proper debate can take place. The results of the Mann findings have had indirect review, but since Mann refuses to release his algorithm there has been no peer that has been able to independently verify his methods. I'd say that this makes his results highly questionable.

The letters to Mann and his associates question other things, like who paid for the research etc. That is a separate topic, but a good one. If the funding was from any governmental body, why is the research being held secret? Technically, if the government paid for this research, shouldn't the results and methods be in the public domain?

It is all rather odd. One can make several conclusions based on the refusal. They may not be justified, but then Mann and the rest really should answer the questions and open his methods to scrutiny. Otherwise they should be considered irrelevant to any discussion on global warming.


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