The Great War of 2007

Niall Ferguson Op-Ed on the middle eastern situation. The piece is written as a historical examination of the causes of a war in 2007.

The optimists argued that the Cuban Missile Crisis would replay itself in the Middle East. Both sides would threaten war - and then both sides would blink. That was Secretary Rice's hope - indeed, her prayer - as she shuttled between the capitals. But it was not to be.

The devastating nuclear exchange of August 2007 represented not only the failure of diplomacy, it marked the end of the oil age. Some even said it marked the twilight of the West. Certainly, that was one way of interpreting the subsequent spread of the conflict as Iraq's Shi'ite population overran the remaining American bases in their country and the Chinese threatened to intervene on the side of Teheran.

Yet the historian is bound to ask whether or not the true significance of the 2007-2011 war was to vindicate the Bush administration's original principle of pre-emption. For, if that principle had been adhered to in 2006, Iran's nuclear bid might have been thwarted at minimal cost. And the Great Gulf War might never have happened.

Interesting that he has China coming in on the side of Iran. I'm not convinced that they are going to swing that way. The threatening of intervention is interesting though, since that appears to be what China does most often.

Ferguson also is going to have a television series in the UK on The War of the World. This sounds quite interesting. Unfortunately, it will probably be a long time in getting across the pond.