Wednesday, July 19, 2006

Israel's Lebanese Adventure.

Krauthammer has the right idea, I just doubt that this will be the end game.
There is crisis and there is opportunity. Amid the general wringing of hands over the seemingly endless and escalating Israel-Hezbollah fighting, everyone asks: Where will it end?

The answer, blindingly clear, begins with understanding that this crisis represents a rare, perhaps irreproducible, opportunity.

And
Fine. Everyone agrees it must be done. But who to do it? No one. The Lebanese are too weak. The Europeans don't invade anyone. After its bitter experience of 20 years ago, the United States has a Lebanon allergy. And Israel could not act out of the blue because it would immediately have been branded the aggressor and forced to retreat.

Hence the golden, unprecedented opportunity. Hezbollah makes a fatal mistake. It crosses the U.N.-delineated international frontier to attack Israel, kill soldiers and take hostages. This aggression is so naked that even Russia joins in the Group of Eight summit communique blaming Hezbollah for the violence and calling for the restoration of Lebanese sovereignty in the south.

But only one country has the capacity to do the job. That is Israel, now recognized by the world as forced into this fight by Hezbollah's aggression.

The road to a solution is therefore clear: Israel liberates south Lebanon and gives it back to the Lebanese.

I agree with his analysis, Israel is the only player in this. The part that Krauthammer doesn't mention is what will happen with the present support. And I only call it support in the most mild of manners. The longer the Israelis fight Hezbollah the less support they will maintain. The Nancies in the EU have already gone a twitter over the Israelis using disproportionate force. (As silly as that is, you generally don't show proportionate force with stinging insects.) The UN is obviously useless in this, since they would likely actually to have to fight if they came into the scenario, and we've seen how effective they are at that.

This is one of those situations that will be very telling on how the whole situation ends. I hope that Israel does clean out southern Lebanon and leaves quickly. Lebanon won't be happy about it overall, but it would appear that it would be the best thing for them.

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