A "What If" from Niall Ferguson

He goes into discussion of what would have happened if the British hadn't stopped the Heathrow plot.

MAYBE IT'S because I know I have to catch a transatlantic flight on Sept. 11. Maybe I'm just too fond of "What if?" historical questions. Whatever the reason, I can't get over how quickly the world has moved on since the exposure of the Heathrow bomb plot. Ever since the revelation that a terrorist ring intended "mass murder on an unimaginable scale," I've been finding it all too easy to imagine what it would have been like if the plotters had succeeded.

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Far from editorializing that "We are all British now," the American media might well have reacted to 8/27 by saying, "The British are all suspects now." The Atlantic would have drastically widened.

The domestic consequences within Britain of 8/27 would have been different too. Far from rallying around a beleaguered leader, British voters would have turned on Tony Blair. Even as things stand, there is complete disillusionment with him. According to a poll published Tuesday in the Guardian newspaper, just 1% of voters think that the government's policy toward the Middle East has improved the country's safety, while 72% think it has made Britain more of a target. An earlier poll for the Spectator found that although 73% of Brits agree with President Bush that we are engaged in a "global war against Islamic terrorists," only 15% believe that Britain should continue to align itself closely with the U.S., compared with 46% who favor closer ties with Europe.

Moreover, whereas 9/11 united Americans (albeit ephemerally), Britain would have been torn apart by 8/27. According to a YouGov poll published in Friday's Daily Telegraph, nearly one in five people believe that "a large proportion of British Muslims feel no sense of loyalty to this country and are prepared to condone or even carry out acts of terrorism." Five years ago, only 32% of those polled said they felt "threatened" by Islam; today, that figure is 53%.

The feeling of alienation is decidedly mutual. A recent Pew global survey found that 81% of British Muslims consider themselves to be Muslims first and British second. (Only Pakistan, at 87%, has a higher percentage of people who put their religion ahead of their nationality.)

I agree that the American media would likely have flipped out, though I think the British would have gotten a more sympathetic response from the American public overall. Of course, it wouldn't have been as sympathetic as the 9/11 response. Mainly because the deaths would have contained a majority of Americans. The statistics that he quotes are pretty worrisome. It makes you wonder how they can make any progress to convince the Islamic citizens more loyal to their country.

Last week, New York magazine asked a diverse group of journalists to answer the question: "What if 9/11 never happened?" It inspired some fascinating answers. But the question "What if 8/27 had happened?" is much more important - because sooner or later something like it is bound to happen for real.

The article he mentions, "What if 9/11 never happened?" is a very long piece, and not surprising in what they state. Though Andrew Sullivan's part is interesting, and I think Bernard-Henri Levy's sarcastic piece is quite amusing. I gave up after a couple of pieces. I especially am fascinated with the utter glee with which many of the writers point out that Bush wouldn't have been reelected. Funny that the majority of the pieces are a complete waste of time.

I would love to see these people make a "what if" on the Iraq war having never happened. I'm certain that the level of fantasy would be fascinating and that the answers would for the most part would be completely wrong.