Iraq Poll

Interesting poll. A pretty big one to compared to most that have been taken.

Carried out amongst a nationally representative sample of 5,019 Iraqi adults aged 18 years+ and coming just days before the fourth anniversary of the invasion of Iraq, the poll reveals that despite the large number of civilian deaths each month, largely as a result of militia activity, only 27% believe that their country is actually in a state of civil war. Opinion here is clearly divided, as 22% feel “we are close to a state of civil war but not yet in one” while 18% argue that the country is “still some way from civil war”.

Regionally, 43% of those in the Shia dominated South believe “Iraq will never get as far as civil war”. The corresponding figure in the Sunni dominated North plummets to 5% where the strongest sentiment (voiced by 42%) is that the country is already in a state of civil war.

Regionally there are also significant differences in attitudes regarding the security situation and the influence of Multi National Forces (MNF). Nationally a small majority (53%) feels that the security situation in Iraq will get better in the immediate weeks following a withdrawal of the MNF. A quarter (26%) believes the situation will deteriorate with the remainder predicting no change or answering "Don't know."

It is in the South where people most strongly believe that the withdrawal of the MNF will see the security situation improve. By a ratio of nearly seven to one the Shia dominated South feels that the situation will get "a great deal/little better" (69%) rather than "worse" (10%). In the Sunni North however opinion is more evenly divided – 46% feel it will get better and 37% feel it will get worse.

What about talk of creating a federal Iraq? With the exception of the Kurdish population in the North of the country a majority (64%) support Iraq remaining as a single country run by a central national government. On this point Sunnis (57%) and Shias (69%) agree that the country should continue as one nation.

There is a pdf of the final tabulated results. I'd say the results are a bit better than I would have expected and substantially better than one would expect if you read the MSM. It's a good starting point, and will be interesting information to have when comparing the results after the surge has been fully implemented.