Tuesday, February 20, 2007

Russia Still Fighting Cold War

Looks like some generals missed that the cold war ended. Or they just want to start it up again.
Russia's military is capable of firing missiles at Poland and the Czech Republic if they agreed to host a U.S. missile shield, Russia's Strategic Forces commander said, but added it was for the Kremlin to decide.

President Vladimir Putin has described Washington's plans to deploy elements of its Missile Defense System in the two central European states as a threat to Russia's national security which would damage the strategic balance of forces on the continent.

"So far we have seen nothing being done, only intentions being talked about," General Nikolai Solovtsov told a news conference on Monday.

"But should the Polish and Czech governments decide (to host the U.S. missile shield), the strategic missile forces will be capable of having these installations as their targets if a relevant political decision were made," he added.

NATO spokesman James Appathurai, responding to the general's comments, said in a statement: "The days of talk of targeting NATO territory or vice versa are long past us. This kind of extreme language is out of date and uncalled for."
Poland and the Czech governments have moved on and are looking for contact with the west. They obviously see benefits for themselves with these alliances. Benefits which Russia obviously can't fulfill. Words like this won't help Russia. The threat to target the missile shield components isn't exactly going to help them either. No doubt they have concerns, but they still assume that they are the main player in Europe, when in fact, the EU has taken that role on and independent states now make their own decisions without Russian influence.
Russia distrusts U.S. assurances the European missile shield is meant to avert possible attacks from countries such as Iran or North Korea and says it believes it is the real target.

In a speech this month which smacked of the Cold War to Western ears, Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Washington of seeking to impose its will on the world.

Putin later said his speech at a security conference in Munich was intended to flag Russia's independent foreign policy rather than to revive confrontation with the West.
Doesn't sound like they want a conflict with the US again, but it does sound like they want their power recognized. I don't think this will be getting better. The US has more interest in spreading cooperation around the world for systems that will protect more and more of the world population. The US is the primary recipient of the protection, but the spread of the alliance is likely to come sooner than later, especially with the problems with states like Iran.
Solovtsov said missile factories could produce in few years a new supersonic missile invisible to the U.S. missile shield or restart production of intermediate range missiles, if Moscow decided to quit a 1987 pact with Washington banning them.

"Russia is ready for any scenario now," he said, reiterating several times during the news conference that the military would only follow decisions by politicians.
That's an interesting posture, though I find it a bit difficult to believe. Consider the economic state of Russia and their increasing isolation from Europe and the rest of the world. They haven't exactly been viewed as a "good" solution to the US. The former Iron Curtain countries have all fled from their alliance with Russia and they have been teaming with the EU and the US for many projects.

The frightening scenario comes with Russia's activity in selling arms to the most antagonistic countries. They have sold advanced radar systems to Iran along with missile and plane technology. This doesn't make them a partner in security, but an irritant.

I also see that the "militarization of space" will be aggravating this problem.
The ballistic missile threat to the United States, its deployed forces, and allies and friends has been well defined.6 This is a threat we downplay at our peril. Nations such as North Korea and Iran -- which also have significant programs to develop nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons -- as well as nonstate groups can pose significant, even catastrophic, dangers to the U.S. homeland, our troops, and our allies. Russia and China, two militarily powerful nations in transition, have advanced ballistic missile modernization and countermeasure programs. Indeed, despite the reality that trade relations with China continue to expand, its rapid military modernization represents a potentially serious threat. Whether these nations become deadly adversaries hinges on nothing more than a political change of heart in their respective capitals.
No doubt this will be categorized as alarmist by the liberal factions in this country, but a country that prepares for contingencies rarely is a victim of those threats. Planning and efforts to prepare are strategically wise measures, even if deployment never comes to reality.


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